How it works

OBELIQ Kalshi Autopilot scans Kalshi event-contract markets, scores opportunities against a backtested edge model, and — when armed — places sized limit orders within strict risk limits. It runs on paper by default and only touches real markets once you connect a production Kalshi key and flip the kill switches.

The edge concept

Every contract has a market price between 1¢ and 99¢ that reads as an implied probability. The engine estimates a fair probability from flow, momentum and category signals, then computes edge — the gap in points between the model's estimate and the market price. Positive edge means the contract looks underpriced for the chosen side. Signals below your min edge and min confidence gates are discarded.

Strategies

Whale-follow

Large trades ("whales") often carry information. The engine watches recent prints, sizes the signal by notional dollars, traded volume and open interest, and follows the implied side when the price sits in a favorable band. Crypto and sports categories carry a small positive prior; world-events carry a negative one.

Contrarian momentum

When a cluster of trades stampedes one direction, the crowd frequently overshoots. With contrarian only on, the engine fades clusters — skipping YES clusters priced above 50¢ and NO clusters below 50¢ — and scores them by cluster size, volume spike and price move.

15-minute crypto

Kalshi runs hourly 15-minute crypto markets on BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, HYPE and BNB. The engine compares live spot to the market-implied mid, waits a configurable delay into the window, and takes the favorite side when its price sits between the entry threshold (~0.95) and entry max (~0.98), exiting below the exit threshold.

Risk controls

• Edge-scaled sizing — small positions at low edge, larger at high edge, hard-capped per position (default $50).
• Exposure caps — max open positions, max per event, max new per day, max total bankroll deployed.
• Daily stop-loss — halts new positions once the day's loss crosses your limit.
• Cash reserve — always keeps a fraction in cash.
• Order expiry & signal age — stale signals and unfilled orders are dropped.

Paper vs live

Three kill switches keep you safe by default: kalshiEnv = demo, dryRun = true, and the master enableTrading = false. Paper mode scores, sizes and records everything without sending real orders. To go live you must (1) connect a production Kalshi key, (2) set the environment to production, (3) turn off dry-run, and (4) enable trading. Any one of these left in the safe position keeps the engine paper-only.

Connecting a Kalshi key

• In your Kalshi account, open Settings → API and mint an API key. You receive an Access Key ID and an RSA private key (PEM).
• On the API Keys page, pick the environment, paste both values, and store. The PEM is encrypted with AES-256-GCM and never shown again — only a fingerprint is displayed.
• Start with a demo key to verify the flow, then add a production key when you are ready to arm live.